While South Africa will probably remain the net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year (which corresponds with the 2023-24 production season), the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage. (File photo)
Current estimates of South Africa’s maize production could be further slashed for the 2023-24 season.
Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon start planting for the 2024-25 production season in October, there typically are minimal adjustments on the figures at this stage. But this has not been a typical season.
We struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions. We have seen downward adjustments in the production estimates late in the season, which is not a typical practice in normal seasons.
Thus, there is always a risk of potential downward revision of the production figures as more data about the actual harvest delivered to silos becomes available.
On 28 August, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered the 2023-24 maize production estimate by 2% from July to 13.06 million tonnes. This current harvest is 21% down from the 2022-23 season.
This sharp decline in harvest prospects signifies the harsh effect of the mid-summer drought. Of the current estimate, white maize is about 6.19 million tonnes (down 3% month-on-month), with yellow maize at 6.87 million tonnes (down 2% month-on-month).
This expected harvest will meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes, leaving the country with a sizable volume for export markets.
Data from the South African Grains and Oilseed Supply and Demand Estimates Committee suggests that exports could reach 1.85 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year (this corresponds with the 2023-24 production season). This may sound significant following a difficult season with a somewhat poor harvest, but there is a boost in supplies from the carryover stocks from the previous season.
In this export forecast, about 1.2 million tonnes will likely be white maize, with 650,000 tonnes could be yellow maize. Still, the estimated exports of 1.85 million tonnes are down notably from 3.40 million tonnes in the previous 2023-24 marketing year (this corresponds with the last 2022-23 production season).
These exports will primarily be for the Southern Africa region. In fact, between May and mid-August 2024, South Africa had already exported 655,000 tonnes out of the expected 1.85 million tonnes. The principal beneficiary is Zimbabwe and a range of neighbouring African countries.
Also worth noting is that while South Africa will probably remain the net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year (which corresponds with the 2023-24 production season), the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage. We have recently seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina through Cape Town.
South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports currently stand at 134,000 tonnes. The imports for the year (2024-25 marketing year) could rise to 350,000 tonnes. Brazil is another potential supplier of yellow maize to South Africa. Notably, after accounting for these potential imports, South Africa will remain a net maize exporter.
In essence, we are at the tail end of a challenging 2023-24 season. The export forecasts may seem reasonably optimistic, given the current unknown risks. The best approach would be to view the data as tentative until there is a sense of comfort about the actual size of the domestic supplies.
That said, we could gain comfort because there are solid supplies for the domestic consumer. The pressure and difficulties remain the regional demand, particularly for white maize. Thus, we continue to see upside risks to white maize prices.
But these figures are still tentative. There may still be adjustments in the coming months, particularly on white maize export forecasts. We are in a tricky season with a lot of unknowns.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics. His latest book is A Country of Two Agricultures.