Comfortable: Eskom chief executive Dan Marokane says stage-two load-shedding will be the worst case scenario for the summer. (Papi Morake/Gallo Images)
Eskom is not anticipating load-shedding this summer, but the utility will implement stage two blackouts in the worst-case scenario, said its chief executive, Dan Marokane.
Eskom has had 152 days without load-sedding.
“Against this backdrop, if we keep unplanned losses below 13GW [gigawatts], we should have a load shedding-free summer,” Marokane said. “In the worst case, if there is 15.5GW of unplanned losses, we will at most experience stage two,” Marokane told a media briefing on the summer outlook.
Marokane said there was a clear drop in unplanned losses from last year and the Eskom team was focused on maintaining this trajectory. He showed a graphic illustrating that in May 2023, unplanned losses were about 18 000MW compared with 11 300MW in July this year.
If the unplanned losses can be kept at under 13 000MW, load-shedding can be averted, the Eskom boss said. He was also optimistic that by the end of the year, the utility would get an additional 2 500MW from the Koeberg, Medupi, Kusile and Tutuka power stations.
The better performance in terms of unplanned losses was a result of “calculated moves and deliberate intentions”, he said, adding that there had been a focus on the generation recovery plan.
He said the improved energy availability had resulted in better staff morale and was also a boost for the economy.
Marokane said the load-reductions being implemented in some areas had nothing to do with “imbalance from a generation perspective” , but rather “it has everything to do with illegal connections. We need to tackle this as a society.”
Eskom said in a statement spending on diesel has been reduced by about R10 billion, a decrease of about 75% compared with the same period last year. The statement also said the year-to-date (1 April 2024 to 22 August 2024) energy availability factor is at 63.54%, a significant improvement of about 8.1% compared with the same period last year (55.41%).
Marokane said planned maintenance had also improved by 10.3%.
He noted that summer brings with it wet weather and heat, saying this was why Eskom was being cautious in its forecasts.
The Eskom boss said he believed that fixing power stations and stabilising electricity supply would make it possible for renewable energy sources to take shape, adding that the utility was focused on increasing capacity from coal-fleet.
If the generation capacity continued in the same trajectory, the end of load-shedding could be in sight, he said.
“Generation capacity from Medupi unit four, Kusile unit six and a second unit are going through its long-term operation programme,” he said.
“That 2 500MW will add significant margins to our reserves and once we have that, together with the sustained performance we are seeing, we should have a conversation around March [2025] as to when we can essentially indicate that from our perspective load-shedding at the chronic level that it was, is behind us.”
Eskom generation executive Bheki Nxumalo said the improvement in the utility’s fleet was a result of maintaining the power stations’ energy availability factor at a high level, with some key stations constantly maintaining an energy availability factor of higher than 60%.