Playing dirty: Environmental activists in Soweto protest about the air pollution created by state-owned energy company Eskom’s coal-fired power stations earlier this year. Photo: Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu/Getty Images
At the UN climate change conference COP29, which will take place later this year in Azerbaijan, a key talking point will be countries’ progress in keeping the world at a 1.5°C temperature increase.
Based on a letter sent out by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) COP 28 presidency, the Azerbaijani COP 29 presidency, and the Brazilian COP 30 presidency, ambitions to keep the world at this level will be one of the event’s crucial discussions.
According to the Paris Agreement, a legal document about keeping global climate change under 2°C, countries are called on to lower carbon emissions by forming nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are commitments countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of mitigating climate change. These commitments are set to be renewed next year as part of the agreement.
COP29 looks to promote discussions around what countries need to achieve global goals of reducing climate change. It will look at how countries can be supported, what barriers exist and how implementing these NDCs can be achieved.
Assessing how far countries are in achieving these goals will be crucial, especially looking to next year, when they are to be updated.
Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute, has created a tool to assess how countries are faring with their NDCs ahead of the crucial COP29 this year and COP30 next year in Brazil.
The tool uses data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and scientific evidence to show how countries across levels of development can align their decarbonisation efforts with the Paris Agreement to prevent climate change and its effects.
Let’s take a look at how South Africa is progressing.
Under current policies, the tool says South Africa will not reach its climate goals. To reach the goal of 1.5°C, emissions will need to fall significantly. It found that coal must be phased out by 2030 to 2035.
Coal makes up most of South Africa’s power supply, roughly 85%, and that needs to drop significantly if 1.5°C is to be reached.
But the draft Integrated Resources Plan (IRP), the country’s energy blueprint, highlights the need to extend the life of coal. This is not in line with the country’s NDC ambitions as coal-fired power stations contribute significantly to the country’s emissions.
Coal is still featured in the plan as critical to stabilising the country’s power supply, where the problems are well documented.
The IRP Horizon One calls for a delay in decommissioning coal stations, which is one of the reasons why the country will battle to reach its climate goals.
While it doesn’t call for new coal-fired stations, which is good, delaying decommissioning will undoubtedly not see the country in a favourable light at the talks.
Renewable initiatives are lacking. “South Africa’s 2023 draft energy plan envisions an estimated 22% renewables in the power system by 2030, down from 33% in the 2019 plan. This is well short of the 75-93% required under a 1.5°C-compatible pathway.
“While market signals, such as record-breaking imports of solar components in 2023, indicate that a more rapid deployment of renewables is underway, stronger targets are needed to guide policy and drive ambition,” the tool found.
However, the country is making some strides in fighting climate change. The recently signed climate change bill is one of them. It looks to “ensure that South Africa’s transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society is not constrained by policy contradictions”, the presidency said.
Renewables need to be scaled up and not down — this is a key flaw in the draft IRP. The country needs ambitious renewable rollouts to ensure our climate goals are realised.
The tool found a “rapid uptake of renewables reaching 93% of generation by 2030 and near phase-out of coal by 2030” could help the country reach its goal of net-zero emissions.
In its current form, the renewable output for the country is at 4.5 gigawatts of new wind and solar between now and 2030.
Energy writer Nick Hedley writes this, combined with private sector-led projects, would lift the share of renewables in the power mix to 22% by the end of the decade. It is nowhere near enough to reach the climate goals.
To ensure renewables are scaled up funding must be secured. These funds need to come from COP negotiations. It will ensure grid capacity, which means more renewable projects can come online and a lower reliance on coal. Funds are also needed for renewable energy technologies.
Closing the funding gap and ensuring countries can achieve their NDCs will be a goal at COP29.